The air transport industry is struggling under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.A number of airlines are struggling and at risk of bankruptcy, but the air cargo market is showing a different picture.Driven by e-commerce and other businesses, the air cargo market demand is strong, cargo airlines have a serious shortage of capacity, and large cargo planes are in short supply.In such a market environment, cargo air operators began to actively take measures to improve operational efficiency, the demand for passenger cargo business is strong, and major aircraft manufacturers have gradually turned the market competition battlefield to large cargo aircraft.

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, international passenger flights have been significantly reduced, while the air cargo market, as an important way to transport materials and means of production, has witnessed a significant increase in market demand and freight rates compared with the previous two years, and air cargo has become an important part of the operating income of airlines.

According to the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) regular report on global air freight, the growth rate of air freight in the first half of 2021 soared to 8%, hitting a new high for the same period since 2017.In September 2021, global air cargo demand grew 9.1% compared to September 2019 (international demand grew 9.4%), but capacity remained constrained and was 8.9% lower than pre-COVID-19 (September 2019) (international capacity fell 12%).A number of airlines around the world have removed seats from passenger planes and temporarily converted them into freighters to cope with the lack of cargo capacity.According to Aviation Week's fleet database, more than 60 passenger planes were temporarily converted into freighters in the first half of 2021, about twice as many as in the same period of the previous two years combined.

Operators set out to improve operational efficiency

Over the past 20 years, the e-commerce business has become increasingly mature and has become an important economic growth point.
According to e-commerce industry experts, the growth rate of the global e-commerce market in 2020 reached 25.7%, and the operating income reached 4.213 trillion US dollars, which is expected to grow further this year, and the operating income will reach 4.921 trillion US dollars, with a growth rate of 16.8%.
In particular, Argentina, Brazil, India and Russia have seen significant growth in online shopping demand, while Asia Pacific and North America will continue to maintain strong demand.
Long before the pandemic, a global boom in online shopping had emerged and continued to spur demand for air cargo.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, a large number of passenger flights were grounded, and passenger aircraft belly is an important component of air cargo capacity, which leads to a serious shortage of air cargo capacity, and has a serious impact on the air cargo market.
The epidemic has accelerated the importance of e-commerce, and cargo aviation operators have begun to pay attention to the e-commerce market, and gradually adjust their business focus according to market demand, and strive to improve the operational efficiency of cargo aircraft.
In the face of the unfavorable conditions of insufficient cargo capacity, operators have actively taken measures to increase capacity through the introduction of new aircraft, passenger cargo conversion, encrypted flights and other ways to ensure that market demand can be fully met.
The world's leading cargo airline, LufthansaCargo (LufthansaCargo), is full of expectations for the development of e-commerce.
The company launched a wholly-owned subsidiary, Heyworld, in 2019 to effectively connect online retailers, end users and participants along the entire chain to provide a comprehensive service to online retailers, effectively filling the market gap between fast but expensive delivery services and slower postal services.
Heyworld is headquartered in Frankfurt and is currently building a new sorting facility in the region, which will be operational in the first half of 2022.
According to market forecasts, cross-border e-commerce shipments will grow at an annual rate of about 20% in the next five years, and in order to meet market growth demand, Lufthansa Cargo is also actively introducing new models to improve its own capacity.
The company said on July 7, 2021 that it plans to receive two Airbus A321 passenger cargo conversion aircraft from the beginning of 2022, and the main cargo compartment of the A321 freighter can use standardized loading plates, which is more efficient.
The two aircraft will be operated by Lufthansa City, which is based at Frankfurt Airport, to meet the growing demand for "same-day delivery" and further complement Lufthansa's dense global route network and high-quality transport products. The A321 passenger cargo conversion aircraft has a commercial load of 28t, which is significantly greater than the belly capacity of short-haul passenger flights.
In addition to freight forwarders, integrators and postal operators, e-commerce platforms will also become new customers for Lufthansa.

Strong demand for passenger-to-cargo business

EFW, headquartered in Dresden, Germany, is a professional MRO company that performs passenger-to-cargo conversion of Airbus aircraft. DHL is one of its major customers for the A330 passenger-to-cargo conversion business.
EFW stated that there is currently a huge demand for passenger-to-cargo business, and orders have been scheduled until after 2025. E-commerce product freight is the main demand, and operators transporting e-commerce products are particularly interested in A320P2F and A321P2F passenger-to-cargo aircraft.
According to the cooperation agreement between Airbus and ST Aerospace, the modification of the Airbus A320P2F prototype is undertaken by Singapore ST Aerospace and has now achieved its first flight. The modification of Airbus A321P2F is being carried out in Singapore, China and the United States. Three passenger-to-cargo aircraft have been delivered so far (the first aircraft was delivered to Qantas in October 2020), while the A330P2F project has delivered 11 aircraft so far.
In essence, narrow-body aircraft are more suitable for the express market because they have a smaller cross-section and cannot be used to transport large machinery, and the A321 and A320 aircraft can load containers in the belly hold, which is not available in other narrow-body aircraft. 

The world's first A320P2F made its maiden flight in Singapore on December 8.

Boeing predicts that in the next 20 years, the global freighter fleet will increase by 60% based on the growth in demand for e-commerce products and general cargo transportation.
Boeing announced on July 12, 2021 that BBAM Aircraft Leasing and Management Company had ordered an additional 12 Boeing 737-800BCF aircraft.In May 2021, Boeing announced a new partnership with Costa Rican MRO company Coopesa,
It is planned to build two new 737-800BCF modification production lines at the company. The first production line will be opened in early 2022, and the second will be opened later that year.BBAM's passenger-to-cargo modification orders will be modified at Coopesa. At the 2021 Zhuhai Air Show, Boeing announced that it would cooperate with Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance Engineering Company (Gameco) to build two new Boeing 767 freighter modification production lines, with delivery expected to begin in 2022.Boeing predicts that the world will need 1,500 passenger-to-cargo aircraft in the next 20 years to meet growing market demand.

In general, the development of e-commerce will continue to promote the development and improvement of the air cargo market, promote digital information construction, and build new operating models.The development of the freight market will also affect the development strategies of aircraft manufacturers. In the future, aircraft manufacturers will focus more on cargo aircraft and passenger-to-cargo business.

Manufacturers' game shifts to large freighters

Today, the supply of large cargo aircraft exceeds demand, and major aircraft manufacturers have gradually shifted the battlefield of market competition to the development of large cargo aircraft.In terms of passenger aircraft development, Airbus and Boeing are neck and neck, and the number of passenger aircraft orders received every year is also similar. However, there is a big difference in the all-cargo aircraft project.Boeing has long dominated the air cargo market, and Airbus is eager to change that.

Airbus to launch A350 freighter project

On July 29, 2021, the Board of Directors of Airbus approved the launch of the A350 freighter project.
The aircraft is expected to be put on the market in 2025, but it has not yet received a start-up order.
It is reported that Airbus has officially promoted this model to companies including UPS, DHL and Qatar Airways, and relevant companies are also preparing to respond positively.
The full name of the A350F freighter is A350-950F freighter. The total length of the aircraft is about 70.1m, which is between the 66.8m of the A350-900 and the 73.8m of the A350-1000.
The aircraft will be equipped with a larger 6-wheel main landing gear and a higher-thrust Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engine, and the cargo door will be located on the front fuselage.
The new freighter will be planned in a unified and coordinated manner with the A350 passenger aircraft to optimize the final assembly and production process.
According to current data, the payload of the A350 freighter is more than 90t, which is close to the Boeing 777F (payload of 102t), but much higher than the 52.5t of the Boeing 767-300F.
Airbus said that the A350F will be designed and manufactured based on the A350-900 and A350-1000. The design of the aircraft will also benefit from the actual operating experience of Airbus's large transport aircraft "Super Beluga" (Beluga XL).
The Beluga Super is a very large freighter adapted from the A330-200 aircraft, used by Airbus to transport wing and fuselage components between its manufacturing and final assembly sites.

The Boeing 777F is very popular among parcel shipping and general cargo airlines.

The A350 freighter is a large wide-body freighter plan that Airbus has launched again since the failure of the A380 freighter plan 20 years ago. Airbus had almost no involvement in the large freighter market before.

So far, Airbus has only launched a newly developed cargo aircraft, the A330-200. However, due to reasons such as its short range, the aircraft was not recognized by the market. After the delivery of 38 aircraft, there was no confirmed order.

In addition, Airbus also launched a passenger-converted freighter model of the A300 in the early stage, but it has gradually withdrawn from the market.In contrast, Boeing has monopolized this market by launching cargo aircraft such as Boeing 767F, Boeing 777F and Boeing 747-8F, with a commercial load range of 50~120t.According to statistics, since 2000, Boeing has successfully delivered 544 wide-body freighter aircraft (excluding passenger-to-cargo conversion projects).As of the end of February 2021, Boeing still has 94 wide-body freighter orders to be delivered.In addition, Boeing plans to stop production of the Boeing 747-8F freighter in 2022.
However, there are still 10 orders to be delivered before the suspension of production, including 6 orders from UPS and 4 orders from Atlas Air.

Regarding the prospects of the A350 freighter, Airbus said that the next few years will usher in a replacement peak for wide-body freighters, which will be beneficial to the market sales of the A350 freighter.Since the Boeing 777F freighter fleet is still very young, Airbus is paying more attention to the fleet upgrade needs of Boeing 767F freighter operators, as well as the replacement needs of Boeing 747F, MD-11F and other old passenger-to-cargo aircraft.According to the Aviation Week fleet database, there are still 119 MD-11F/DC-10F cargo aircraft in commercial operation on the market. These old aircraft will gradually withdraw from the market in the near future.This will bring huge market opportunities,As the only new-generation freighter to be launched in the next few years, the A350 freighter is expected to be highly competitive in the market.

Boeing plans to launch 777X freighter project

Facing the challenge from Airbus, Boeing is planning to launch the Boeing 777X freighter project.Although the first model of the Boeing 777X series, the Boeing 777-9, will not enter service until the end of 2023,However, as the global air cargo market continues to recover, coupled with the discontinuation of production of the Boeing 747-8F freighter in 2022 and the emergence of the A350-950F freighter, it is necessary to accelerate the plan.

It is worth mentioning that additional pressure to promote the Boeing 777X freighter comes from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).The aircraft carbon dioxide emission standards adopted by the organization in 2017 will apply to new aircraft model designs from 2020 and to aircraft model designs that have been put into production as of 2023. The standard stipulates that if an aircraft that has been put into production has not reached the standard by 2028, it will not be produced again unless its design is fully modified.However, the existing Boeing 767-300ERF and the Boeing 777F freighter designed based on the Boeing 777-200LR will not be able to meet the requirements before the legislative effective date in 2028.
According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Boeing has applied to extend the deadline to meet carbon emissions standards to 2038 due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Currently, the Boeing 777F freighter has become the backbone of Boeing's wide-body aircraft business, with 209 aircraft delivered and 46 aircraft yet to be delivered.
In this regard, Boeing stated that strong demand in the freighter market will drive them to launch the Boeing 777XF freighter project.

Currently, there are few details about the Boeing 777XF freighter.

Unlike previous freighters derived from other Boeing passenger aircraft, the fuselage size of the Boeing 777XF freighter is between the Boeing 777-8 and Boeing 777-9 passenger aircraft of the same series.
According to Leeham News and Analysis data analysis, the total length of the Boeing 777XF freighter is 69.3m, which is 1.1m longer than the Boeing 777-8 passenger aircraft and 5.8m shorter than the Boeing 777-9.

Like the A350-950F freighter, the Boeing 777XF freighter will have increased range compared to the basic configuration and increase the container loading capacity of the main cargo hold.

The current Boeing 777F cargo aircraft has a fuselage length of 63.7m.
With the development of the air cargo market, the market demand for large wide-body cargo aircraft will continue to grow steadily. From the perspective of aircraft performance, the A350-950F and Boeing 777XF are both highly competitive cargo aircraft models in the future market.

In particular, the A350-950F freighter is the latest generation of aircraft and has the advantages of high payload and low emissions. However, whether its composite fuselage large-opening technology is mature remains to be discussed.
In addition, the Boeing 777F is currently the most efficient freighter and one of the most popular large wide-body freighters on the market. The launch of the Boeing 777XF can ensure that this market segment is not captured by other models.
At the same time, the Boeing 777XF has a higher payload than the A350-950F, but the Boeing 777X series aircraft are, after all, developed and improved aircraft based on the Boeing 777 aircraft, and there is a generation difference with the A350 aircraft.
In general, the success of an aircraft model mainly depends on market requirements and demand, and only the right one is the best.
For Airbus to be on par with Boeing in cargo aircraft and challenge Boeing's market dominance, it still needs market testing. (Shu Yaohan, COMAC Marketing Center. Some information comes from AW&ST.)