Following the skyrocketing prices of ocean shipping and near-ocean shipping, civil aviation freight prices have also increased by about three times recently.
"Take the China-US route as an example. Before the epidemic, the price for the entire route was around 35 yuan/KG.
The main line price is around 29 yuan/KG.
After the epidemic (in the past two months), the price for the whole section is about 79 yuan/KG, and for the trunk line is about 73 yuan/KG. The price increase is mainly affected by market supply and demand. "The person in charge of the booking business of a large listed logistics company in Shanghai told a reporter from Securities Daily.
The reporter learned that pure cargo aircraft such as Boeing 747 aircraft have a cargo capacity of about 90 tons to 100 tons. Calculated based on the full price, the charter price is about 7.9 million yuan.
"Charter cargo terminal prices have about doubled compared to before the epidemic. This is mainly because after a charter flight across the ocean, there is no cargo for the return trip to Europe and the United States, which means that the charter price has changed from the original one-way to a round-trip. Coupled with factors such as the recent surge in overseas oil prices, airline costs have increased a lot.
Therefore, some airlines have replaced their previous charter fees with hourly fees, plus return fees and local fuel prices, and then added a little profit.
Therefore, on the surface, charter flight prices do not appear to have increased as much as retail freight, but in fact, for airlines, profits have not increased much. "An executive of a listed logistics company headquartered in Shanghai told reporters.

Booking space requires connections
"It's roughly two or three times higher than before the epidemic." Talking about the recent international air freight prices, Zhang Hao, the person in charge of Beihai International Express, told a reporter from Securities Daily,
"In fact, the price of air cargo showed an upward trend when the water transport market was congested this summer, so we locked in space early."
But if you want to book a space, you still need to compete for "depth of cooperation." Zhang Hao told reporters that the company's global business is mainly through aviation channels, and it has long-term good cooperation with many airline giants, so it is easier to book space. "For many companies, even if they are willing to bid, they may not be able to book space as they wish at the moment."
In Zhang Hao's view, the current demand for international air cargo is still strong, which means that it is difficult to see a price drop in the short term. But in the long run, the demand and supply of international freight will gradually reach a balance. "Once supply and demand return to balance and prices decline, people will still give priority to choosing freight channels based on cost performance."
However, different airlines have different charter and retail freight price increases.
An insider of Juneyao Airlines told reporters: "Before the epidemic, there were many international inbound and outbound flights, which could meet the demand for international freight. But after the epidemic, the number of international flights decreased, so the price of air freight will fluctuate. For example, the price of cross-border logistics charter flights in Europe , the current increase is around 10%.”
An executive of a large logistics company in Shanghai believes that the price increase at the retail end of air freight is greatly affected by speculation. "Before the epidemic, retail freight to the United States was very cheap. But after the epidemic, due to the lack of space, there was no need to wait in line, and the price was more likely to be increased. In fact, although the terminal freight rate of charter flights was also affected, it was generally limited , because charter flight customers are still very rare.”

"Air freight prices between China and Europe have about doubled compared to the first half of the year. We currently have no routes between China and the United States, while prices on Asian routes have not changed significantly." Regarding the increase in freight rates for specific routes, the above-mentioned Juneyao Airlines insider said.

Civil aviation develops cargo transportation
The civil aviation industry's focus on cargo transportation has become an important way for airlines to turn around their performance. Data shows that since the epidemic, listed airlines have suffered serious losses, but with the help of cargo logistics, China Southern Airlines once achieved a single-quarter loss.
Judging from the semi-annual report data, Juneyao Air’s cargo business has also achieved certain results.
Juneyao Airlines said in its semi-annual report that in terms of freight, the epidemic last year caused high freight prices and huge demand for cargo space. The company actively explored sources of income and carried out businesses such as "passenger conversion to cargo". In the same period of last year, freight revenue was 421 million yuan.
In the first half of this year, due to the increase in overall air cargo transport capacity and the fall in freight prices, cargo revenue in the first half of this year was 113 million yuan.
According to Gao Peng, an analyst in the civil aviation industry, the most important reason for the increase in freight prices on Sino-US routes is that cargo ships are blocked at U.S. ports and cannot be delivered.
"As Christmas approaches, some companies have to abandon less efficient water transportation channels and switch to air transportation, which leads to an increase in air transportation demand."
An insider from Juneyao Airlines said:
"Affected by the epidemic, currently domestic airports adopt a 'four designated, four fixed, two centralized' approach for centralized management of personnel involved in international flight support to reduce cross-infection.
This control measure has resulted in fewer personnel than in the past to ensure freight loading and unloading.
At the same time, the overseas epidemic situation is serious, and there is also a shortage of personnel in various service links.
The combination of these factors has led to a backlog of cargo at major airports and major seaports and reduced processing efficiency, which has stimulated an increase in air freight prices to a certain extent. "
“November and December are the traditional peak seasons for air freight logistics. Overseas fresh products have strict time requirements, and sea freight cannot meet the demand. Many sea freight products need to be transported by air;
Overseas demand for electronic products will increase after the year, which will occupy some shipping space.
It has also contributed to the increase in air freight prices. Furthermore, the increased overseas demand for COVID-19 testing reagents has led to a significant reduction in air space reserved for other cargo. "The above-mentioned Juneyao Airlines insider added.
A few days ago, the Civil Aviation Administration of China standardized the cargo loading standards in passenger cabins of "passenger-to-cargo" flights and proposed that non-epidemic prevention items be prohibited from being carried in the cabin.
"This also means that the passenger cabin cargo volume of international flights will be relatively limited, and reduced supply has also become one of the reasons for pushing up air freight prices." Gao Peng said.
Gao Peng believes that “Judging from the current cargo orders on hand for some airlines, the strong demand for air transport will probably continue until after the Lunar New Year.”

Air freight prices may remain high
"Since the epidemic, cargo planes have been operating at the maximum cargo capacity most of the time."
The relevant person in charge of Cathay Pacific told a reporter from Securities Daily that there is huge market demand for medical supplies, cross-border e-commerce services and special services. In order to ensure supply, Cathay Pacific continues to launch innovative solutions to help stabilize the supply chain and global economic recovery.
Specifically, Cathay Pacific actively develops new cargo modes, including carrying cargo in the belly hold of passenger aircraft, passenger-to-cargo, scheduled and temporary all-cargo flights, and coordinating the resources of the group's all-cargo airline Huamin Airlines, operating temporary cargo charter flights, and continuously improving freight capacity.
In addition, Cathay Pacific has also established a multi-layered freight service network by effectively connecting civil aviation + road transportation modes to deploy sufficient transportation capacity for the mainland market.
In 2021, Cathay Pacific modified two Boeing 777 passenger aircraft, increasing its number of "cargo passenger aircraft" to six.
“We are committed to enhancing innovation and digital development in the freight sector.”
The above-mentioned person in charge of Cathay Pacific told reporters, "At the end of November this year, we launched a new digital innovative booking platform 'Easy Booking' to provide registered customers with an easy-to-use, all-weather online booking platform."
According to Zou Jianjun, a professor at the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the current rapid rise in international air cargo prices will not be a long-term trend.
"In addition to the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic, there is also a very serious problem, which is the abnormality of shipping." Zou Jianjun said,
"Port congestion has caused a decrease in shipping capacity, and a large number of goods have been transferred from sea to air transportation, resulting in distorted market conditions."
In addition, rising oil prices and inflation are also factors that push up international air freight prices.

Regarding the trend of air freight prices in the future, an insider from Juneyao Airlines said:
"During the Christmas period, foreign trade companies have greater demand for air freight space, and air freight prices are expected to remain high in the future."
Zou Jianjun also said that air freight prices may remain high in the next year. The timing of returning to normal prices depends on the evolution of the epidemic, the pace of adjustment of industrial and supply chains in various countries, and the easing of port congestion. (Source: Securities Daily)